CEPS is leading a consortium of 18 partners in a project examining the future evolution of health expenditure in the (enlarged) European Union. This project will refine existing estimates of the links between reported states of health and use of medical services. As well as looking at the effects of ageing on health care the research will take account of the link between health expenditure and fertility rates and the demands on health services made by non-native populations. Particular attention is paid to costs of care near death. A study will be made of factors other than demand (such as methods of financial control) which may influence health spending. An important aspect of the research is that the work is carried out so as to be able to provide not only the familiar projections and scenarios but also standard deviations and confidence limits for predictions of key variables such as healthy life expectancy and demand-driven expenditure levels. These will allow policy-makers to judge not only possible outcomes but also the risks surrounding them and to assess their implications.